With the war now in its third year, or its eleventh year according to many Ukrainians, and a decisive victory by either side becoming increasingly unlikely, a peace (of sorts) is within reach. Negotiations between Washington and Moscow commenced in February 2025, with Kyiv, in a surreal twist of international diplomacy, sitting on the periphery. Peace in these circumstances, in which Russia is rewarded for its aggression, and in which Ukraine is placed in an even more precarious security situation, can only be described as fragile at best.
Putin’s peace terms include Ukraine’s recognition of Russia’s annexation of four south-eastern regions, and a roll-back by NATO of most of its post-Cold War deployments in eastern Europe. These demands, coupled with his broader hostility toward the West and his New Year’s address in which he declared 2025 the “Year of the Defender of the Fatherland” – a signal of the Kremlin’s continued militarisation of Russian society - leave open Putin’s commitment to peace.
In the event of a negotiated peace, absent any changes to NATO’s posture on its western flank, it is likely that NATO will consider a strong deterrence and defence posture to be the only option to maintain an uneasy peace along the NATO-Russia frontier which stretches from the Barents Sea through the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea.
This presentation considers the prospects of a lasting peace through the parallel lenses of the terms of a negotiated peace settlement, the veracity of Putin’s commitment to peace, and NATO’s force posture and reimagined European security needs in what many believe will be a prolonged period of Russian hostility. The question underpinning this presentation is whether the price paid in taming the bear will merely serve to feed its aggression.